Since it's peak the XSI for Far East exports has fallen by 69.5%
The XSI for Far East exports fell by 13.9% in June. The index is now below 200 points for the first time since May 2021. At this point the index was in the early stages of a spectacular rise that lasted from early 2021 through to August 2022. The XSI for Far East exports has now fallen by 69.5% since its peak.
From September 2022 through to March 2023, outbound container demand fell every single month y-o-y (source: CTS). April saw a change, but it was driven by European imports and not renewed demand from North America, which was the crucial catalyst behind the tremendous growth in long-term contract rates during 2021 and 2022.
From February to April, the Far East exports index experienced single-digit month-on-month reductions. However, in the last two months it's been double-digit declines, indicating a clear weakening of overseas demand from essential Western markets.
As we see for all other back hauls indexes, the drop in the XSI for Far East imports is more muted than its exports counterpart. It fell by 6.7% in June, all but matching May's decline of 6.9%. Compared to the end of 2022, this index is now down 35.4%.
One Far East import trade lane that stands out in June for its 'recovery' is the corridor from South America East Coast to China, which is up by 11% m-o-m. As the spot rates for goods traded in the opposite direction have trended up since the end of March, contract rates are now climbing on the back haul too.