ASIA-EUROPE FREIGHT RATE RALLY STALLS AMID PORT CONGESTION AND MIXED MARKET SIGNALS

The rise in Asia-Europe freight rates has stalled amid mixed signals, while the risk of port congestion is increasing and Trans-Pacific rates continue their downward trend.

 

 

The recent surge in container freight rates on the Asia-North Europe trade appears to have stalled — at least for now — as spot rates show signs of cooling across major indices. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) recorded a 2% weekly decline on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route, bringing rates down to $3,384 per 40ft container and ending a six-week streak of increases.

 

Other indices present a more mixed picture: the SCFI remains steady at $3,996 per 40ft container, and Xeneta’s XSI holds at $3,393. However, Freightos’ FBX stands out with a 14% increase, pushing its Asia-North Europe rate up to $3,522. One freight forwarder described market rates as largely flat, noting that some premium carriers have slightly lowered rates to stay competitive. “Space is relatively easy to secure — even ahead of peak season,” he added. “Except at Xiamen, where space is tighter, most cargo is moving without major issues.”

 

Still, this calm may not last. Xeneta’s Chief Analyst, Peter Sand, warned that spot rates could rise again soon as congestion worsens at Northern European ports. “This disruption is expected to last through the rest of 2025,” he said. Carriers have begun adjusting service rotations and skipping port calls to manage delays — measures that could add complexity and costs for shippers.

 

While Asia-North Europe rates have stabilized for now, Asia-Mediterranean trade has seen a sharp drop. Drewry’s WCI shows a 7% weekly decline on the Shanghai-Genoa route, down to $3,491 per 40ft container. Some forwarders report that Mediterranean rates have now fallen below those to North Europe for the first time in years.

 

Meanwhile, Asia-North America trade lanes continue their downward trend, though the pace of decline has eased compared to previous weeks. The WCI shows Shanghai-Los Angeles rates down 8% to $2,931 per 40ft container, and Shanghai-New York rates down 5% to $4,839.

 

Sand noted that tariff uncertainty is distorting market behavior, particularly on trans-Pacific routes. “Geopolitical shifts have upended normal pricing patterns,” he said. Spot rates to the US West Coast have plunged 51% in just over a month. With pre-tariff front-loading fading and new duties looming, Sand expects East Coast rates to soon fall faster than those to the West Coast, potentially narrowing the gap to below $1,000 by the end of July.

 

Finally, the transatlantic market has surrendered recent gains. Spot rates on the Rotterdam-New York route dropped 6% to $1,990 per 40ft container, returning to levels seen two weeks ago.

 

The current outlook reflects a container market in constant flux, where congestion, shifting capacity, and geopolitical pressures continue to challenge predictability on global shipping lanes.

 

Source: Global trade

 

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